{"id":2003,"date":"2018-01-02T08:55:40","date_gmt":"2018-01-02T13:55:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/?p=2003"},"modified":"2018-01-02T08:55:40","modified_gmt":"2018-01-02T13:55:40","slug":"the-2018-state-of-the-state","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/the-2018-state-of-the-state\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2018 State of the State"},"content":{"rendered":"

New York State\u2019s constitution requires that \u201cThe governor shall communicate by message to the legislature<\/em> at every session the condition of the state, and recommend such matters to it as he or she shall judge expedient<\/em>.\u201d\u00a0 Since the early 20th<\/sup> Century, governors have delivered a State of the State speech in addition to delivering a written document.\u00a0 Traditionally, the address was usually held on the first Wednesday of January and presented to an audience of state legislators, dignitaries and other guests. \u00a0However, for the last two years, the governor did not hold the State of the State on that date.\u00a0 After a two-year hiatus, the governor is scheduled to issue his message on January 3rd<\/sup>, the kickoff of the 2018 legislative session.<\/p>\n

Whenever the State of the State address is held, it is supposed to discuss the \u201ccondition of the state\u201d and what the governor proposes to recommend.\u00a0 This year, there are four big \u201cshadows\u201d that are being cast over the state and its budget.<\/p>\n

\u201cShadow 1\u201d:\u00a0 The state budget deficit.\u00a0 According to the state Comptroller, New York State is projected to face a $4 billion deficit in the next fiscal year. \u00a0The Comptroller also estimates that the current fiscal year (which ends on March 31, 2018) will be around $1.8 billion short.\u00a0 Those estimates are somewhat at odds with what the Cuomo Administration\u2019s budget people have been saying \u2013 they expect a balanced budget for this year and a shortfall next fiscal year.<\/p>\n

Whoever is right, what is clear is that next fiscal year the state will be facing a significant budget deficit of its own making.\u00a0 There will likely be a budget deficit in the billions of dollars.\u00a0 That makes it even more daunting to initiate new spending programs, particularly when those shortfalls are the result of changes in the federal budget.\u00a0 Which leads to the second \u201cShadow.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cShadow 2\u201d:\u00a0 The changes in federal tax policy will exacerbate the state\u2019s budget deficit.\u00a0 As mentioned, New York already faces a $4 billion deficit for the fiscal year that starts April 1st<\/sup>. Changes resulting from the deal struck between President Trump and the Congress will make that worse.\u00a0 Undoubtedly, some New Yorkers will win and some will lose under the plan, but the immediate impact on the state\u2019s finances will be negative.<\/p>\n

The nation\u2019s already enormous budget shortfall will be gargantuan once the new tax plan kicks in \u2013 it is estimated that the federal tax changes will increase the nation\u2019s debt by $1.5 trillion over the next decade.\u00a0 The resulting deficits will create enormous pressure to cut domestic programs, many of which benefit people in the state.\u00a0 Under a 2010 law, the increased deficit could force automatic spending cuts\u00a0to Medicare and other programs, many of which New York relies upon to help their poorest residents.<\/p>\n

In addition, the deficit likely increase pressure on important health programs.\u00a0 For example, it is estimated that a $1 billion hole could result if the federal government defunds a portion of the state\u2019s Basic Health Plan, which provides low-cost health insurance to residents earning less than twice the federal poverty level. And, in March, the state will run out funds for Children\u2019s Health Insurance Plan (CHIP), a joint state-federal healthcare program, if it is not renewed by Congress. \u00a0The state relies on $1 billion in federal CHIP funds to insure 330,000 children.<\/p>\n

The question will be, will the state make up the difference?\u00a0 And if so, that will add significant pressure to a state budget already straining under its own deficit.<\/p>\n

\u201cShadow 3\u201d: \u00a0The governor, the state Comptroller, the Attorney General and all state legislators are up for re-election this year.\u00a0 How will elected officials crow about their successes if they have to cut deeply into popular programs?\u00a0 Of course, they will do all they can to blame the President and the Congress \u2014with considerable justification, as mentioned earlier.\u00a0 But budget cuts usually leave voters in a surly mood \u2013 not one that incumbents like to face in an election year.<\/p>\n

\u201cShadow 4\u201d:\u00a0 Corruption.\u00a0 In each month for the first six months of 2018, there will be another corruption trial beginning.\u00a0 It starts this month with a former top aide to the governor facing trial. \u00a0His associate and another close ally of the governor have already pleaded guilty and are cooperating with prosecutors.\u00a0 In all of these cases the defendant is entitled to a presumption of innocence, and may all be ultimately vindicated.<\/p>\n

But the spectacle of the trials and the revelations of Albany\u2019s unseemly political behaviors will likely be distasteful to New Yorkers.\u00a0 And this is an election year.<\/p>\n

There will be lots of issues tackled this legislative session, some issues that are known and still that are unknown.\u00a0 But those four \u201cshadows\u201d will float over and likely impact the session.\u00a0 How the governor and state lawmakers react to them will likely set the stage for the November elections, which coincides with the mid-term elections for Congress and will be viewed as a referendum on the Trump administration.<\/p>\n

It is important that New Yorkers demand more openness, honesty, and fairness of Albany\u2019s political class as this tough session runs its course.\u00a0 Hope springs eternal at the beginning of the New Year for more open, accountable and responsive government at all levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New York State\u2019s constitution requires that \u201cThe governor shall communicate by message to the legislature at every session the condition of the state, and recommend such matters to it as he or she shall judge expedient.\u201d\u00a0 Since the early 20th Century, governors have delivered a State of the State speech in addition to delivering a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2003"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2003\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2004,"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2003\/revisions\/2004"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}