{"id":3114,"date":"2024-11-11T08:21:12","date_gmt":"2024-11-11T13:21:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/?p=3114"},"modified":"2024-11-11T08:21:12","modified_gmt":"2024-11-11T13:21:12","slug":"election-2024-warning-signs-for-ny-democrats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/election-2024-warning-signs-for-ny-democrats\/","title":{"rendered":"Election 2024: Warning Signs for NY Democrats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

While the vote tallies for the nation\u2019s elections last week are not fully complete, it is clear that it was a decisive victory<\/a> for Republicans, with Donald Trump handily taking the Electoral College and winning the national popular vote, a possibility that seemed unlikely<\/a> in the run up to the vote. Republicans also regained control of the U.S. Senate, with the House of Representatives races still too close to call. Here in New York, however, it was a different story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Incumbents largely prevailed in state Legislative races and Democrats appear to have won<\/u><\/a> four of the five swing seats for Congress. In addition, New Yorkers solidly supported<\/a> the constitutional question on the ballot that strengthened legal protections against discrimination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Congressional races and the constitutional question were top political priorities<\/a> for Governor Hochul. From a Democrat\u2019s point-of-view, her marshaling of political resources to achieve those victories<\/a> must be considered feathers in her cap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heading into Election Day, the governor pledged<\/a> to raise money and distribute resources on behalf of Democratic Congressional candidates and in support of the constitutional ballot question. She did and her efforts bore fruit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the swing Congressional elections in Syracuse, the Hudson Valley and on Long Island, Democratic candidates won \u2013 or appeared to have won \u2013 in 4 races. The incumbent Republican representatives appear to have lost in Syracuse, the upper Hudson Valley and on the south shore of Nassau County. The one Democrat incumbent facing a tough race won. Only in the lower Hudson Valley did the Republican incumbent fend off a challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The performance of New York Democrats stands in contrast to the party\u2019s performance nationwide. But there are warning signs for state Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is true because Kamala Harris received far fewer votes in New York than Joe Biden did in 2020 and Donald Trump fared better in New York than four years ago. Comparing<\/a> the two Democrats\u2019 performances shows that Biden received almost a million more votes than Harris did. Trump received 150,000 more votes last week than he did in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Harris received 4.3 million votes to Biden\u2019s 5.2 million four years earlier. Yet, there are 6.5 million registered<\/a> Democrats in New York. Trump received 3.4 million in 2024 \u2013 an increase over the 3.25 million he received in 2020. There are 3 million registered Republicans in New York State. It seems pretty clear that Republicans showed up for the Presidential race and Democrats did not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democrats\u2019 warning signals don\u2019t end there. Since 2020, there has been a drop<\/em> in Democratic voter enrollment: There are nearly 300,000 fewer<\/em> registered Democrats in New York than there were four years earlier. Republican party enrollment is up<\/em> nearly 100,000. By the way, voters who are not registered in any political party have also seen growth and now outnumber the Republican total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why the shift in voter enrollment? It could be a shift in how voters feel about politics in New York. Polling on how New Yorkers feel about the direction of the state has been negative<\/a>. In addition, it is likely that at least some of the shift in Democrats\u2019 total has to do with the net outflow<\/a> of people from the state. While the total number of registered voters is up<\/em> from four years ago, the state\u2019s population has declined<\/em>. Perhaps one explanation can be that Democrats have been more likely to move out-of-state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lastly, Republicans in state legislative races seem to have survived in a Presidential election year. Typically, Presidential years bring out more voters than in off years and in a state as heavily dominated by Democrats as in New York, Republican candidates suffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, Republicans appear to have been able to protect their incumbents and even solidify their gains<\/a> in south Brooklyn \u2013 until recent years a Democratic bastion. And a look back at the governor\u2019s race in 2022 \u2013 when a Republican candidate ran a strong race<\/a> against Governor Hochul \u2013 underscores a potential longer term shift in the political fortunes of Republicans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As with any election, who wins and loses matters most. In New York, Democratic gains in the Congressional races and the solid approval of the constitutional amendment are undoubtedly victories. Success by Republicans in maintaining their support in legislative races in a Presidential year must offer some solace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The trends in voter enrollments and the Republican gains in New York City are encouraging signs for their party and flashing warning lights for Democrats. How they proceed going forward will plant the seeds for future election outcomes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While the vote tallies for the nation\u2019s elections last week are not fully complete, it is clear that it was a decisive victory for Republicans, with Donald Trump handily taking the Electoral College and winning the national popular vote, a possibility that seemed unlikely in the run up to the vote. Republicans also regained control […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3114","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3114"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3114\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3115,"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3114\/revisions\/3115"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nypirg.org\/capitolperspective\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}