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THE 2009 SESSION
The 2009 legislative session is upon us. Looking back it’s amazing how much has changed. Last year’s State of the State address was delivered by then-Governor Eliot Spitzer, the economy was showing signs of cooling but no sign of collapse, and the Senate majority was — as it had been for over 40 years — controlled by the Republicans. Given the unbelievable changes that occurred in 2008, it’s hard to speculate on what the future holds for New York, but the success of the 2009 legislative session may depend on how the following questions are handled. Question 1. Will the governor and the legislature close the state’s $13 billion budget deficit in a fair and open manner? The governor’s office currently estimates that the state faces a projected $13 billion shortfall unless changes are made. Last month the governor unveiled his plan for closing that gap with a combination of billions of dollars in additional taxes and fees as well as billions in cuts — to politically sensitive areas like education and health care. While there are a couple of still unanswered questions — how the new Obama Administration’s fiscal stimulus package affects New York and whether the economy will continue its steep decline or rebound — both the product and the process of the budget matter. Will the “pain” of the budget be fairly distributed, or will the least politically powerful get hurt the most? Will the budget negotiations be conducted openly? Last year’s deliberations were conducted largely in secret and the legislative conference committees were more show than substance. We now see that the current year’s secret budget decisions led to an out of whack agreement. Will this year be different? Question 2. Will the Democrats capably govern? It appears that for the first time since the 1930s, Democrats will control all of New York State government. I say “appears” because while there is a Democratic numerical majority in the Senate, 32-29 with one seat still being recounted, it’s not clear that the Democrats will be able to marshal a governing majority. The state faces serious problems. The budget is a mess, the energy situation has improved in terms of price, but the problems of global warming still loom, and millions of New Yorkers lack health insurance. Add to those issues the problems associated with the skyrocketing cost of college and the state’s pockets of persistent poverty, and you can see that the agenda is long and difficult to tackle. If the Democrats fail to organize the Senate or fail to move the state government in a positive direction, Albany will suffer from a policy gridlock never before seen. If the Democrats wish to succeed, they need to organize themselves and then move quickly to tackle the state budget problems and other important issues. Question 3. Will reform legislation pass? For years, the Senate Democratic minority argued that if they ever seized the majority they would aggressively work to reform state government. They advocated for campaign finance, redistricting, legislative rules, and ethics reforms. During some of that time, their leader was former State Senator David Paterson. As governor, Paterson seems to have forgotten his reform promises; will his former colleagues do the same? Of course it will be difficult for the Senate Democrats to enact anything given their slim majority. But unless they advance proposals and receive support from the governor and the State Assembly, nothing will get done. And if they fail, the public will have no choice but to blame the Democrats. Obviously, all New Yorkers should hope that the 2009 session succeeds. The state’s future hinges on what kinds of decisions Albany lawmakers make this year. My fingers are crossed. That’s all for now. I’ll be keeping an eye on the Capitol and will talk to you again next week.
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